Commercial

NAR: No Meaningful Recovery in Commercial Real Estate Before 2011

(HUNTINGTON NEWS) - There may be signs — however slight — of recovery in the overall economy but commercial real estate, judging by the fourth quarter 2009 results, won’t start picking up until 2011, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said commercial real estate almost always lags the economy. “Because of the lingering impact from the deep recession over the past two years, vacancy rates will trend higher and many commercial property owners will need to make rent concessions,” he said.

“With the job market expected to turn for the better later this year, we’ll see rising demand for office and warehouse space, but that isn’t likely before 2011,” Yun said. “At the same time, improved consumer confidence would help sustain the retail sector and encourage more people to enter the rental market.”

Yun notes that commercial vacancy rates remain high in most market areas and are depressing rents. The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, in its SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, an attitudinal survey of more than 700 local market experts, suggests a flattening level of business activity in upcoming quarters with 55 percent of members expecting the market to improve in the second quarter.

The SIOR index rose 0.2 percentage point to 35.5 in the fourth quarter, compared with a level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace. This is the first gain following 11 consecutive quarterly declines. Although some indicators show that a decline in commercial property values is beginning to flatten, 86 percent of respondents report prices are below replacement costs.

Read full story

© 2010 Realty News Now.